Endeavour Mining (LON:EDV) expects to produce gold in the lower half of its full-year guidance range after suspending underground mining at its Mana operation, even as higher gold prices helped drive record cash flow in the first nine months of 2026.
Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockerill said the company expects its strongest production quarter of the year in the fourth quarter, with higher grades at Houndé, Ity and Sabodala-Massawa helping offset the disruption at Mana. Full-year costs remain on track on a royalty-adjusted basis, he said.
Endeavour produced 820,000 ounces in the first nine months, generating adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $2.25 billion, up 38% from the same period a year earlier. Year-to-date free cash flow reached $1.02 billion.
Mana suspension weighs on outlook
Endeavour paused all underground mining at Mana on Oct. 28 after partial subsidence of an access ramp restricted surface access to the Dangouna and Aviera portals. Access to the Wona portal, which uses a different ramp, was not affected.
Executive Vice President of Operations and ESG Djaria Traoré said the company expects Mana’s full-year production to fall significantly below the low end of its guidance, with costs above the top end. The company expects the mine’s 2027 production to be affected as well.
Traoré said a geotechnical review identified a graphitic shear zone running through the affected area. That structure, together with the historic mining method used in shallower underground workings, may have contributed to the subsidence. The review is ongoing.
Endeavour expects to re-enter Wona in the fourth quarter to stabilize shallow areas before restarting ore mining in the second quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals. Processing at Mana is expected to remain paused until the second quarter to allow stockpiles to build.
The company has received a mining permit for the Bana Camp open pit and plans grade-control work at the Maoula pit. Traoré said Endeavour is also looking for ways to increase output elsewhere in its portfolio, particularly at Lafigué and Sabodala-Massawa, to offset some of Mana’s shortfall.
Asked whether Mana remains a core asset, Cockerill said it had been strongly cash generative before the incident. He said the company was examining remediation options and expected to provide further details with its year-end results in January.
Quarterly cash flow rises
Third-quarter gold production was 256,000 ounces, down from the preceding quarter as lower grades at several mines, wet-season conditions at Houndé and a mining pause at Mana weighed on output, Chief Financial Officer Guy Young said.
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $639 million as gold sales and realized prices declined. Operating cash flow, however, rose 28% to $407 million, and free cash flow increased 76% to $261 million, helped by lower quarterly cash-tax payments.
Young said the company had paid about 95% of its expected full-year cash taxes and anticipated strong free cash flow again in the fourth quarter. Endeavour ended the quarter with a $263 million net cash position, approximately $850 million in cash and $700 million available under its undrawn revolving credit facility.
Endeavour has returned $312 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks so far in 2026, exceeding its annual minimum commitment, Cockerill said. He expects a record full-year return and does not expect the Mana disruption to affect the shareholder return program, but declined to provide a specific forecast.
Assafou investment approved
Endeavour has approved a final investment decision for the Assafou project, where it is targeting first gold in the first half of 2029. The company increased the project’s capital envelope to $1.2 billion, citing higher land and crop compensation, additional contingencies and other measures intended to reduce project risk.
Cockerill said approximately 60% of the increase related to higher compensation rates following consultations with local government and communities. The company expects to finalize its resettlement plan by year-end and said mining-convention terms agreed in principle with the Minister of Mines still require government sign-off.
In response to an analyst’s question, Cockerill estimated spending of up to $100 million in 2026, up to $500 million in 2027 and about $600 million in 2028. The 2026 amount is included in the $1.2 billion envelope, he said.
At Sabodala-Massawa, the first phase of an underground expansion remains on track for first ore by year-end. A board-approved second phase is expected to start in early 2027, with commercial production targeted for early 2028. Together with Assafou, the project underpins Endeavour’s target of increasing group production to 1.5 million ounces by 2030.
Safety review and exploration updates
Traoré said employee Biermann Leon Bado died on Oct. 7 after being found unresponsive at Ity’s processing plant. Following an investigation, the company is expanding camera coverage and testing wearable technology for earlier incident detection. It has also commissioned an independent review of operational risk and safety culture.
Endeavour expects to announce resource updates later this year for the Vindaloo Deeps discovery at Houndé and Kawsara at Sabodala-Massawa. Cockerill said the discoveries could extend the lives of both mines and are not included in the company’s 1.5 million-ounce production target.
About Endeavour Mining (LON:EDV)
Endeavour Mining is one of the world’s senior gold producers and the largest in West Africa, with operating assets across Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso and a strong portfolio of advanced development projects and exploration assets in the highly prospective Birimian Greenstone Belt across West Africa. A member of the World Gold Council, Endeavour is committed to the principles of responsible mining and delivering meaningful value to people and society. Endeavour is admitted to listing and to trading on the London Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange, under the symbol EDV.
