Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) executives highlighted stronger earnings, record fertilizer volumes, and continued portfolio simplification during the company’s 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call, while outlining guidance and capital allocation priorities for 2026. Management emphasized cost discipline, lower capital spending, and a focus on free cash flow generation and shareholder returns.
2025 performance: higher EBITDA, record volumes, and cost savings
President and CEO Ken Seitz said the company’s 2025 results reflected “strong execution” of its three-year plan introduced at the 2024 Investor Day, which targets higher upstream fertilizer volumes, growth in downstream retail earnings, lower operating costs, and optimized capital expenditures.
Operational highlights by segment included:
- Potash: The company raised potash sales volume guidance twice during the year as strong offshore demand offset a shortened fall application window in North America. Nutrien achieved 49% potash mine automation and reported potash controllable cash costs averaging $58 per ton, below its $60 per ton goal.
- Nitrogen: Nitrogen sales volumes increased to 10.9 million tons, and ammonia operating rates improved by four percentage points, supported by reliability initiatives and debottlenecking projects. Management said strong performance from North American nitrogen plants offset the impact of a controlled shutdown of Trinidad operations in Q4.
- Phosphate: The phosphate operating rate averaged 87% in the second half of 2025. Nutrien said it delivered within its guidance range despite lower North American demand in Q4.
- Retail: Downstream retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.74 billion, which management attributed to cost reductions, strong proprietary margins, and execution of a Brazil margin improvement plan.
Seitz also said the company surpassed its $200 million annual cost savings target and reduced capital expenditures to $2.0 billion, below the $2.2–$2.3 billion Investor Day target. He said these actions “structurally grown free cash flow,” providing greater flexibility for capital deployment.
Portfolio actions and capital returns
Management framed 2025 as a continuation of a portfolio simplification strategy. Seitz noted that in 2024 Nutrien cancelled the Geismar clean ammonia project and divested smaller non-core assets. In 2025, Nutrien conducted a “comprehensive” asset review focused on free cash flow contribution, return on invested capital, and competitive position, leading to approximately $900 million in gross proceeds from divestitures.
Seitz said the company used increased free cash flow and divestiture proceeds to reduce short-term debt by more than $600 million compared to the prior year and to increase cash returns to shareholders by 30% in 2025, supported by ratable share repurchases. Management also linked repurchases to supporting dividend growth per share while keeping total dividend expense “broadly stable.”
2026 outlook: demand fundamentals, volume guidance, and retail growth drivers
CFO Mark Thompson said management sees “constructive fundamentals” for 2026.
Potash. Thompson said potash demand is projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, supported by relative affordability, nutrient removal, and low channel inventories. Management pointed to benchmark prices roughly 20% higher than 12 months ago and indicated it expects relatively tight fundamentals as trend demand growth tests global operating and supply chain capabilities.
Nutrien’s potash sales volume guidance is 14.1–14.8 million tons. Thompson added that capital was committed through Q1 earlier than in recent years and the U.S. Winter Fill program was “very well subscribed,” leading the company to expect Q1 sales volumes similar to the year-ago period and prices reflecting year-over-year benchmark increases. The company expects controllable cash costs per ton at or below $60.
In Q&A, management projected global potash shipments of 74–77 million tons for 2026 and said it believes consumption is matching shipments, pointing to early settlement activity in China and multi-year low inventories in Brazil. Seitz cited benchmark pricing levels discussed on the call, including Brazil at $375, U.S. Winter Fill pricing of $355 per short ton, Southeast Asia at $375, and India at $349.
Nitrogen. Nutrien guided to nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2–9.7 million tons, supported by reliability initiatives and debottlenecking projects, and assuming no production from Trinidad and New Madrid in 2026. Thompson said those facilities accounted for about 1.6 million tons in 2025 (around 15% of nitrogen segment volumes) but contributed minimal free cash flow. He said Nutrien’s nitrogen cost structure now reflects production tied entirely to AECO and Henry Hub gas, which management said improves margin profile and cash flow stability.
Phosphate. Nutrien expects phosphate sales volumes of 2.4–2.6 million tons, with most year-over-year growth projected in the first half, while elevated input costs are expected to pressure margins near term.
Retail. Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.75–$1.95 billion. Thompson said the midpoint is supported by:
- High single-digit growth in proprietary product gross margin, including new product launches, organic growth in core geographies, and international expansion
- A mid-single-digit increase in North American crop nutrient sales volumes with margin rates similar to 2025, driven by nutrient replenishment needs after a record crop and a shortened fall application window
- Improved weather assumptions in Australia relative to early 2025
- Continued cost management across geographies supporting incremental EBITDA margin improvement
In Q&A, management said proprietary products gross margin has grown to about $1.2 billion and has seen high single-digit growth over the last five years, which it expects to continue. Executives said Nutrien plans to introduce 26 new proprietary products in 2026.
Strategic reviews: phosphate, Trinidad nitrogen, and Brazil retail
Seitz said Nutrien launched a review of strategic alternatives for its phosphate business in Q4 2025 and expects to “solidify the optimal path” in 2026. In response to analyst questions, he said the review could range from “revised operations” to a sale and that the company is preparing for market testing. Seitz added Nutrien has seen “significant inbound” interest, and management expects to be in a position “in the next quarter” to begin testing market interest once information is prepared for potential counterparties.
On Trinidad nitrogen operations, Seitz said gas availability and pricing have been challenging, describing uncertainty around Venezuelan gas supply and the pipeline discussions. He said the Trinidad plant had been throttled to 80% due to lack of gas and also faces higher gas costs, and that with minimal contribution to overall earnings and cash flow the situation was “untenable,” leading to a shutdown. Management said it continues to discuss options with the Trinidad government but is operating the facility in an idle state with a core workforce while evaluating alternatives.
In Brazil, executives said results improved from a loss in 2024 to “making a bit of money” in 2025 and that 2026 is expected to show modest improvement. Seitz said macro headwinds have kept returns below what Nutrien views as appropriate and that the company is actively reviewing alternatives for components of its Brazilian business, including its retail footprint and seeds business, while maintaining confidence in opportunities for proprietary products.
Capital allocation: capex, dividend growth, and buybacks
Thompson reiterated that Nutrien’s 2026 capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. Capital expenditures are guided at $2.0–$2.1 billion, consistent with 2025 and about $200 million below the Investor Day target. Thompson said the company ended 2025 with a working capital build due to delayed customer purchases and expects most of that to unwind in 2026, supporting improved cash conversion.
The company’s most recent dividend, declared the day before the call, marked the eighth consecutive year of dividend-per-share increases. Nutrien’s board authorized repurchases of up to 5% of outstanding shares over the next 12 months, and management said it has been repurchasing at a pace of approximately $50 million per month year to date, framing ratable repurchases as a consistent element of its capital allocation approach.
About Nutrien (NYSE:NTR)
Nutrien Ltd. is a global fertilizer and agricultural-services company headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. The company is publicly traded and operates across the farm input value chain, combining upstream fertilizer production with a broad retail and services platform aimed at supporting crop production worldwide. Nutrien’s business model integrates the manufacture and distribution of crop nutrients with on-the-ground agronomic support for growers and agricultural businesses.
Nutrien produces and supplies the three primary fertilizer nutrients—potash, nitrogen and phosphate—through its wholesale operations, and markets a wide range of crop inputs including seeds and crop protection products.
