NiSource (NYSE: NI) raises its long-term EPS growth target and extends its plan to 2033

What happened

NiSource Inc. (NYSE: NI) raised its long-term earnings growth target and extended its capital plan through 2033. The company announced the changes Oct. 28 with its third-quarter results.

It now expects consolidated non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share to grow 10%-11% a year from 2027 to 2033. The target rests on $40.0 billion of capital spending over those seven years.

For 2027, NiSource guided to consolidated adjusted EPS of $2.22-$2.30. It narrowed 2026 guidance to the upper half of its $2.02-$2.07 range.

NiSource also said a new agreement with Microsoft expands GenCo cost savings for existing customers to approximately $1.75 billion. Chief Executive Lloyd Yates said the signed GenCo agreements are expected to deliver those savings.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Capital expenditures plan, 2027-2033	$40.0 billion		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Expected consolidated adjusted EPS growth (CAGR), 2027-2033	10%-11%		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
2027 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance	$2.22-$2.30		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Q3 GAAP net income available to common shareholders	$129.5 million	from $94.7 million, +36.7%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Nine-month consolidated adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	$1.49	from $1.38, +8.0%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
GenCo customer savings with Microsoft agreement	approximately $1.75 billion		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1

Read more: NiSource (NI) company research

The third-quarter and nine-month results

Third-quarter earnings rose from a year earlier. GAAP net income available to common shareholders was $129.5 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, against $94.7 million, or $0.20, in the third quarter of 2025. By OptimistFi's calculation, that is a 36.7% increase in net income.

Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $130.9 million, up from $91.8 million, or $0.19 per share, a year earlier. Adjustments to third-quarter operating income were small, at $2.0 million, so the GAAP and adjusted pictures match.

Over nine months, GAAP results were flat per share. Net income was $685.7 million against $671.7 million a year earlier, and diluted EPS was $1.42 in both years.

Adjusted EPS did rise, to $1.49 from $1.38, an 8.0% gain by OptimistFi's calculation. Adjustments added $32.4 million to nine-month net income and included $21.4 million of extra NIPSCO costs during the April 2026 lockout.

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Where the growth comes from

The capital plan splits into $32.0 billion of base plan spending and $8.0 billion for data center investments. By OptimistFi's calculation, data center projects make up 20.0% of the seven-year total.

NiSource expects the plan to support 9%-10% consolidated investment base growth from 2027 to 2033. For the base plan alone, it guides to annual adjusted EPS growth of 6%-8%, with 8%-10% rate base growth.

Consolidated adjusted EPS adds earnings from data center operations and development to the base plan figure. The company expects those earnings to follow a different growth profile. The higher consolidated target therefore depends on the data center projects.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that NiSource compounds earnings only if rate recovery and financing stay friendly enough to offset heavy capital needs. The raised and extended targets strengthen the earnings side of that view. They also put more weight on those two conditions.

NiSource's own risk list is specific. It must obtain significant additional financing, on favorable terms, for the generation and transmission assets it builds for data center customers. It must also recover its investments under data center contracts and keep its investment grade credit ratings.

It also names the risk that a data center customer defaults, reduces committed capacity or ends a contract. All guidance is non-GAAP. The company says weather, asset sales and impairments could make the comparable GAAP measures differ materially.

What's next

NiSource's next quarterly report is the next check. Adjusted EPS tracking toward the upper half of the narrowed 2026 range would support the new guidance.

Any change to data center contract terms or financing conditions would weaken the case. Those are the inputs behind the higher consolidated growth target.

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