Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its first quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 0.170-0.190 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.250. The company issued revenue guidance of $680.0 million-$690.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $692.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several equities analysts have recently commented on GEO shares. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Wall Street Zen raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Jones Trading cut their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $50.00 to $37.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, November 7th. Finally, Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $35.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

NYSE GEO traded down $2.15 during mid-day trading on Thursday, hitting $13.68. The stock had a trading volume of 5,584,797 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,756,342. The firm’s 50 day moving average is $16.64 and its 200 day moving average is $18.38. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a current ratio of 1.62 and a quick ratio of 1.62. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.90 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.08 and a beta of 0.73. Geo Group has a twelve month low of $12.81 and a twelve month high of $32.09.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, meeting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.25. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.41% and a return on equity of 7.42%. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $0.13 earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Equities research analysts forecast that Geo Group will post 0.83 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

More Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and strong top‑line growth — GEO reported total Q4 revenues of $707.7M, up ~16.5% year‑over‑year, signaling healthy contract activity and revenue momentum. View Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire and Founder/Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, a move some investors may view as stabilizing because of Zoley’s long-standing operational experience. Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS in line with expectations — GEO reported $0.25 EPS, matching consensus and improving from $0.13 a year ago; that removes an outright earnings surprise as a catalyst. Earnings Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Full release and investor materials posted — management provided a press release and slide deck with the quarter and 2026 outlook for review. Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below Street expectations — GEO set FY 2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 vs. consensus ~$1.27, a meaningful shortfall that likely pressured the stock. Company Results & Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 guidance also below expectations — management guided Q1 2026 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25) and revenue guidance slightly under Street estimates, reinforcing concerns about near‑term earnings growth. Guidance Summary
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and ESG pressure persists — a denied rehearing on a legal injunction and reports of rejected shareholder proposals on human‑rights reviews add reputational and litigation risk that could weigh on valuation. No Rehearing Article ESG Coverage

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several large investors have recently made changes to their positions in GEO. Rubric Capital Management LP lifted its stake in Geo Group by 139.5% during the third quarter. Rubric Capital Management LP now owns 2,986,915 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $61,202,000 after purchasing an additional 1,739,522 shares in the last quarter. UBS Group AG grew its stake in shares of Geo Group by 56.5% during the third quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 3,603,288 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $73,831,000 after purchasing an additional 1,300,139 shares in the last quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC raised its position in shares of Geo Group by 32.7% during the 3rd quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 4,974,772 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $101,933,000 after acquiring an additional 1,224,847 shares in the last quarter. Balyasny Asset Management L.P. raised its holdings in Geo Group by 3,774.9% during the second quarter. Balyasny Asset Management L.P. now owns 781,573 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $18,719,000 after purchasing an additional 761,403 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Two Sigma Investments LP raised its stake in Geo Group by 225.4% during the 3rd quarter. Two Sigma Investments LP now owns 1,034,778 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $21,203,000 after acquiring an additional 716,805 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.