Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.02 EPS

Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $0.09 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.11 by ($0.02), FiscalAI reports. Certara had a net margin of 2.62% and a return on equity of 5.18%. The company had revenue of $103.65 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $103.23 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.15 EPS. The business’s revenue for the quarter was up 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year. Certara updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.440-0.480 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Certara’s conference call:

• New CEO and strategic plan: Jon Resnick (onboard Jan 1) laid out three priorities — focused portfolio, customer-centric go-to-market, and operational discipline — and says Certara can reach double-digit growth over time while already identifying roughly $10M of 2026 cost avoidance.
• Conservative 2026 guidance: Management guides to only flat to +4% revenue growth for 2026, adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%–32%, and adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.48, with Q1 expected at the low end of the range.
• Mixed 2025 results but near-term execution risks: full-year revenue was $418.8M (+9%), software revenue was $183.3M (+18% reported; organic +7%), yet Q4 software bookings fell 6% and management cited conversion and Tier 1/2 execution weakness.
• Services and MIDD momentum: technology-driven services bookings rose 17% in Q4 and MIDD services showed double-digit bookings growth, with December customer commitments cited as a positive discretionary-spend indicator.
• Regulatory writing under strategic review and capital allocation: the regulatory writing & operations business is in the final stages of a strategic review (outcome not yet disclosed) while the company plans to continue using share repurchases as a capital-allocation tool.

Certara Price Performance

CERT stock traded up $0.21 during trading on Thursday, hitting $6.80. The stock had a trading volume of 4,562,931 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,594,993. The stock has a market cap of $1.08 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.14 and a beta of 1.47. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a quick ratio of 2.09 and a current ratio of 2.09. The company’s 50 day moving average price is $8.44 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $9.94. Certara has a 1-year low of $6.04 and a 1-year high of $15.38.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

CERT has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Leerink Partners restated an “outperform” rating and set a $10.00 target price on shares of Certara in a research report on Thursday. Barclays decreased their price target on Certara from $14.00 to $13.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, December 15th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “sell (d+)” rating on shares of Certara in a research note on Monday, December 29th. TD Cowen reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of Certara in a report on Thursday. Finally, Morgan Stanley decreased their target price on Certara from $16.00 to $12.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, December 18th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seven have issued a Buy rating, six have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $12.55.

More Certara News

Here are the key news stories impacting Certara this week:

• Positive Sentiment: FY‑2025 revenue and margin strength — Certara reported FY‑2025 revenue of $418.8M (+9%) and adjusted EBITDA of $134.5M (+10%), showing solid full‑year top‑line growth and expanded adjusted EBITDA. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Product / bookings momentum — Q4 software revenue grew ~10% year‑over‑year (software = $46.4M) and total Q4 bookings rose ~7% to $155.2M, supporting recurring revenue visibility. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: New leadership and cost actions — CEO Jon Resnick (effective Jan 1, 2026) outlined an operational overhaul and signaled ~ $10M of near‑term cost avoidance / efficiency actions, which investors may view as supportive for margins and execution. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Guidance mix — management guided FY‑2026 adjusted diluted EPS to $0.44–$0.48 and adj. EBITDA margin ~30–32%; the EPS range is near consensus but revenue growth guidance (0–4%) is conservative and will be read for cadence across the year. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Full earnings package and materials available — management hosted an earnings call and provided slides/transcript for investors to assess forward cadence and execution priorities. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS miss and GAAP loss — adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.09 versus consensus ~$0.11, and GAAP net loss was $5.9M; adjusted metrics declined sequentially (adj. EBITDA -3% Q/Q vs prior year), highlighting near‑term profitability pressure from higher operating costs. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue guidance below some street estimates — several outlets noted FY‑2026 revenue guidance implies slower growth versus consensus, which could pressure sentiment until execution on bookings and commercial improvements is demonstrated. Read More.

Institutional Trading of Certara

A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of CERT. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. raised its holdings in Certara by 2,733.3% in the 4th quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,975 shares of the company’s stock valued at $26,000 after acquiring an additional 2,870 shares during the last quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. grew its position in shares of Certara by 50.7% in the second quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. now owns 3,491 shares of the company’s stock valued at $41,000 after purchasing an additional 1,175 shares during the period. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC increased its stake in Certara by 499.5% in the second quarter. Tower Research Capital LLC TRC now owns 5,917 shares of the company’s stock valued at $69,000 after purchasing an additional 4,930 shares during the last quarter. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board purchased a new position in Certara during the second quarter worth about $83,000. Finally, Engineers Gate Manager LP acquired a new stake in Certara in the 4th quarter worth about $92,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 73.96% of the company’s stock.

About Certara

Certara is a biosimulation software and services company that partners with pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device developers to accelerate drug discovery, development and regulatory approval. The company’s platform integrates quantitative pharmacology, real-world evidence, artificial intelligence and machine learning to model and simulate drug behavior across a range of therapeutic areas and patient populations. By applying these mechanistic and data-driven approaches, Certara helps its clients predict clinical outcomes, optimize dosing strategies and streamline decision-making throughout the product lifecycle.

The company’s offerings are divided into software tools and consulting services.