CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) Made Lower Margins Pay in Retail

What happened

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) cut the profit it earned on each retail used vehicle, and the trade worked. Retail unit sales rose 13.8% to 227,391 even as gross profit per retail unit fell $111 to $2,105. Total retail gross profit still increased 8.1% to $478.6 million.

That is the clearest evidence yet that more competitive pricing can restart volume without destroying the economics of the retail business. The wholesale channel tells a less encouraging version of the same story.

Read more: CarMax (KMX) stock analysis and investment case

Why it matters

The changed assumption is that lower margins would merely buy low-quality growth. CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) sold 27,662 more retail vehicles than a year earlier. At the prior-year gross profit of $2,216 per unit, those added vehicles represent about $61.3 million of gross profit. The $111 reduction across all current-quarter retail units cost about $25.2 million. The resulting $36.1 million bridge closely matches the reported $36.0 million increase in retail gross profit.

Wholesale did not deliver the same payoff. CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) sold 22,042 more wholesale vehicles. At the prior-year $993 unit margin, that volume was worth about $21.9 million, while the $135 margin decline across current volume cost about $21.6 million. Reported wholesale gross profit rose only $0.3 million.

The wider quarter improved for other reasons too. Other gross profit rose 33.1%, CarMax Auto Finance income increased 32.1%, and SG&A per vehicle fell 8.8%. Those gains helped diluted earnings per share rise to $1.16 from $0.64.

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What's next

The strongest countercase is credit quality. The loan-loss allowance rose to 3.07% of auto loans from 2.95% in the prior quarter, and CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is financing more Tier 2 customers through its own finance arm. Better volume can be expensive if future losses absorb today's finance income.

Management now expects the full-year retail gross-profit-per-unit decline to be less than $200. The next test is whether comparable retail units keep growing while that decline narrows and wholesale gross profit begins rising again. For now, the quarter strengthens the retail recovery case, but it does not prove every channel is earning an adequate return.

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Sources

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Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.