Vistra (NYSE:VST) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.27 EPS

Vistra (NYSE:VST) released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday. The company reported $2.18 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $2.45 by ($0.27), Zacks reports. The firm had revenue of $4.58 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.75 billion. Vistra had a net margin of 6.70% and a return on equity of 64.04%.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Vistra delivered a record year with approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and about $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above prior guidance midpoints.
• The company expanded its dispatchable fleet through the closed Lotus deal (~2,600 MW) and the announced Cogentrix acquisition (~5,500 MW), which management expects to drive mid- to high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow per share accretion over 2027–2029.
• Vistra has contracted roughly 3.8 GW of nuclear capacity under long-term 20-year PPAs with Amazon and Meta, creating durable, low-volatility cash flows and supporting uprates/license extensions that management says could materially boost long-term cash generation.
• Management cites a structurally stronger U.S. demand backdrop—driven by data centers and rising electricity use—that should increase utilization of existing assets, but notes the most significant hyperscaler-driven tightening likely ramps in late 2027–2028, so timing remains uncertain.
• The balance sheet and capital plan look constructive—projecting >$10 billion cash through 2027, roughly $3 billion available after planned returns and growth investments, ~$1.8 billion remaining repurchase authorization, and a target net debt/EBITDA of ~2.3x by year-end 2027.

Vistra Stock Down 1.9%

Shares of NYSE VST traded down $3.40 during midday trading on Friday, reaching $173.42. 5,492,681 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 5,491,625. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.74, a quick ratio of 0.88 and a current ratio of 0.99. Vistra has a 52-week low of $90.51 and a 52-week high of $219.82. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $163.44 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $180.87. The stock has a market capitalization of $58.76 billion, a PE ratio of 62.61, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.07 and a beta of 1.40.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, March 31st. Stockholders of record on Friday, March 20th will be paid a dividend of $0.228 per share. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.91 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.5%. The ex-dividend date is Friday, March 20th. Vistra’s payout ratio is 32.85%.

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of brokerages have weighed in on VST. Jefferies Financial Group raised shares of Vistra from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and lifted their price target for the company from $191.00 to $203.00 in a research report on Tuesday, February 10th. Bank of America cut their target price on shares of Vistra from $231.00 to $218.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, January 12th. Morgan Stanley restated an “overweight” rating and set a $215.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a report on Friday, February 20th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets raised their price objective on Vistra from $230.00 to $244.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Monday, January 12th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have given a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Vistra currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $236.60.

Key Headlines Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Operational beat and AI-driven demand — Vistra said core profit beat estimates, citing stronger power demand driven in part by AI-related loads; this supports the company’s earnings power and growth thesis. Vistra beats quarterly core profit estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Record 2025 operating results and constructive 2026 guidance — Vistra reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of ~$5.91B and strong adjusted free cash flow, and its 2026 guidance was presented as reinforcing a multi‑year growth path, which underpins longer‑term valuation. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Fleet expansion improves market positioning — Announcements about expanding Vistra’s dispatchable fleet should boost its exposure to power market upside and demand from data centers and other large users. Fleet expansion article
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst view unchanged despite trim — Wells Fargo trimmed its price target slightly from $236 to $234 but kept an “overweight” rating, implying meaningful upside; the small target cut is a mild signal but not a rating downgrade. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: More color available — Earnings call transcript, slides and multiple analyst write-ups (Zacks, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo/Fool) provide detail for investors to parse operational vs. accounting impacts. Zacks Q4 metrics
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP earnings and revenue misses; large unrealized hedge losses — The quarter showed a sizable EPS and revenue miss against some street estimates, and an $808M non‑cash unrealized commodity hedging loss depressed GAAP results, which likely pressured the stock. Press Release / Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: Relative performance concerns — Analyst comparisons (e.g., Zacks piece contrasting VST vs. NRG) note peers may offer stronger ROE, yield or recent performance, which can shift investor preference within the utility/power space. VST vs NRG

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other Vistra news, CEO James A. Burke sold 22,251 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, December 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $162.05, for a total transaction of $3,605,774.55. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 297,998 shares in the company, valued at $48,290,575.90. This trade represents a 6.95% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. 1.42% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Vistra

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in VST. Mcguire Capital Advisors Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Vistra in the fourth quarter worth $28,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. bought a new position in Vistra during the 4th quarter valued at $30,000. Strive Financial Group LLC acquired a new position in Vistra during the 4th quarter worth $33,000. IFC & Insurance Marketing Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 4th quarter worth about $35,000. Finally, Strive Asset Management LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 3rd quarter valued at about $38,000. 90.88% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.