Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG) executives used the company’s preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call to outline an ongoing accounting review, discuss freight market conditions, and provide initial 2026 revenue guidance. President and CEO Phil Yeager and CFO Kevin Beth emphasized that the results discussed were preliminary and could change as the company completes its year-end audit.
Accounting error delays final results and will require restatement
Management said that during the quarter- and year-end closing process, Hub Group identified a calculation error that led to an understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable. The issue impacts the first nine months of 2025, and the company said it expects to restate earlier quarters in 2025 when it files its Form 10-K.
Both executives stressed that there is no expected impact on total cash and cash equivalents or operating cash flows for any periods. Yeager said the company has taken steps to strengthen and enhance controls and reiterated that accuracy and transparency are priorities.
Preliminary 2025 results: revenue down, cash flow highlighted
For full-year 2025, Beth said the company expects consolidated operating revenue of $3.7 billion, representing a 7% decrease versus the prior year. Yeager said 2025 reflected a challenging market cycle characterized by stable demand and an oversupply of capacity, and that the company focused on cost management, service, new business wins, and continued investment in equipment, technology, and acquisitions.
Hub Group reported preliminary cash flow from operations of approximately $194 million for 2025. Capital expenditures were approximately $45 million, in line with the company’s target of less than $50 million for the year.
On the balance sheet, Beth said debt at December 31, 2025 totaled approximately $229 million. After cash of approximately $113 million, the company ended the year with net debt of approximately $116 million, which he said was about $50 million lower than net debt at December 31, 2024. In 2025, Hub Group returned $44 million to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases. Management also noted that approximately $142 million remained under the company’s share repurchase program.
Segment commentary: intermodal service and mix shifts across logistics
Yeager said fourth-quarter revenue in the company’s ITS segment declined slightly year over year, citing a lighter peak season, while emphasizing cost management and operational discipline across intermodal and dedicated operations. Beth put full-year 2025 ITS segment operating revenue at approximately $2.2 billion.
In intermodal, Yeager said fourth-quarter volumes increased 1% year over year, revenue per load was flat, and revenue per load rose 3% sequentially. He detailed intermodal lane and product trends, including:
- Transcon volume up 1%
- Local East down 4%
- Local West down 1%
- Refrigerated volumes up 150%
- Mexico volumes up 33%
Yeager also provided month-to-month volume trends: October finished up 2% year over year, November was down 3%, and December was up 3%. In January, intermodal volume decreased 4% year over year, which Yeager attributed to a winter storm and a difficult comparison from a year earlier, when shippers pulled forward orders ahead of tariffs.
Yeager said Hub Group delivered a 90-basis-point improvement in year-over-year on-time performance and believes its service position supports intermodal growth into the 2026 bid season. Beth added that intermodal volume growth of 1% in the quarter, along with stable revenue per load despite lower surcharge revenue, was offset by lower dedicated revenue. He noted that the company realized peak surcharges of approximately $900,000 in the fourth quarter, representing a $4 million year-over-year difference.
Dedicated revenue declined in the fourth quarter due to lost sites earlier in the year, according to Yeager, though he said improved service levels are contributing to a stronger pipeline of opportunities with existing clients.
In the logistics segment, Beth said full-year operating revenue is expected to be approximately $1.6 billion, including a high single-digit year-over-year decrease in fourth-quarter revenue. Management attributed fourth-quarter logistics results to lower brokerage revenue, select customer attrition at the company’s consolidation and fulfillment services (CFS) operations, and softer final-mile demand, partially offset by new customer onboardings.
Within logistics, Yeager said CFS benefited from a warehouse consolidation that drove a 630-basis-point improvement in space utilization year over year. In final mile, he said the company is completing onboarding of significant new business wins and has made investments to ensure a smooth transition, although fourth-quarter volume underperformed due to onboarding delays and minor scope changes.
Brokerage volumes declined 10% year over year in the fourth quarter, Yeager said, with revenue per load down 4% as less-than-truckload volume slowed. He added that truckload and refrigerated results benefited from project freight and tightening later in the quarter. Yeager said brokerage productivity improved 41% year over year due to technology investments and restructuring. He also said managed transportation performed well in 2025 and is expected to continue performing well in 2026, citing new business in the fourth quarter, a pipeline of growth opportunities, and a 12% year-over-year productivity improvement.
Market backdrop and early 2026 outlook
Executives described freight markets as challenging through 2025, with dynamic conditions and signs of tightening capacity influenced by regulatory enforcement, weather, and pressures on undercapitalized carriers. At the same time, Yeager said demand and inventory levels remain balanced and the consumer has stayed resilient, while Beth said the market appeared closer to balance than at any time in recent years.
For 2026, Beth provided preliminary revenue guidance of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion. He said ITS revenue is expected to be driven largely by intermodal volume growth through the year, while dedicated performance is expected to be slightly lower than 2025 due to lost customer sites that will offset new awards in the near term. For logistics (excluding brokerage), management expects recovering revenue through the year due to new business wins and improving profitability, led by final mile and managed transportation. Brokerage is expected to face near-term volume pressure that weighs on logistics profitability.
On capital spending, Beth guided to $35 million to $45 million of CapEx in 2026, focused on technology projects and opportunistic tractor replacements. He also said the company does not plan to purchase containers in 2026.
Management said it would provide additional details on its 2026 outlook when it releases full fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results.
About Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG)
Hub Group, Inc (NASDAQ: HUBG) is a leading supply chain solutions provider headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois. Founded in 1971 as Hub City Terminals and renamed Hub Group in 1978, the company completed its initial public offering in 2007. Over the decades, Hub Group has developed a comprehensive multimodal transportation network, leveraging partnerships with major rail carriers and an extensive drayage fleet to offer cost-efficient, sustainable shipping alternatives.
The company operates through two primary segments: Intermodal and Transportation Management.
