Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates Q4 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its fourth quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.280-0.310 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.330. The company issued revenue guidance of $758.0 million-$808.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Shares of NYSE GEO opened at $30.73 on Friday. The company has a 50-day simple moving average of $29.27 and a 200-day simple moving average of $21.72. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00, a current ratio of 1.65 and a quick ratio of 1.75. The company has a market cap of $4.11 billion, a PE ratio of 14.50, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.66 and a beta of 0.79. Geo Group has a 12 month low of $12.51 and a 12 month high of $32.25.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.31% and a return on equity of 10.42%. The business had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $0.22 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 15.1% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, equities analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.3 earnings per share for the current year.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of research analysts have recently commented on GEO shares. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. Northland Securities upped their price target on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Finally, JonesTrading boosted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.28–$0.29 consensus range, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732.1 million, exceeding estimates. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 outlook was raised above analyst expectations: GEO now expects full-year EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0 billion–$3.1 billion. Management also projects third-quarter EPS of $0.35–$0.37, above the $0.30 consensus estimate. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: ICE expansion and analyst support are strengthening the growth narrative: GEO is targeting additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026 and outlined expected 2026 net income of $168 million–$175 million. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, implying further upside from the referenced price. GEO Outlines 2026 Net Income Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Momentum screens highlight continued price strength: Recent performance has substantially outpaced the stock’s longer-term moving average, although such technical signals do not necessarily indicate that the gains will continue. GEO Group Price Strength Analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Some quarterly guidance was weaker: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.28–$0.31 was below the $0.33 consensus estimate, creating a modest counterpoint to the otherwise favorable outlook. GEO is also facing questions from lawmakers regarding alleged violations at its Moshannon Valley facility, which could present reputational or regulatory risk. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. lifted its position in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% during the second quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP increased its stake in Geo Group by 122.6% during the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $165,000 after buying an additional 3,800 shares during the period. Guggenheim Capital LLC acquired a new position in Geo Group in the 4th quarter worth $174,000. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV boosted its position in Geo Group by 19.3% in the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $188,000 after buying an additional 1,882 shares during the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.