Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates Q2 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its second quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Wednesday morning. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 0.250-0.290 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.280. The company issued revenue guidance of $715.0 million-$725.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $727.8 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.150-1.250 EPS.

Geo Group Price Performance

NYSE:GEO traded down $0.80 during mid-day trading on Thursday, hitting $21.40. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 1,064,476 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,246,081. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.51 and a fifty-two week high of $27.90. The company has a current ratio of 2.01, a quick ratio of 2.01 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. The company has a market capitalization of $2.84 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.76 and a beta of 0.82. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $16.91 and a 200-day moving average of $16.44.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.67% and a return on equity of 8.36%. The firm had revenue of $705.21 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $688.89 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted $0.14 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 16.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS. As a group, equities analysts forecast that Geo Group will post 1.18 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several research analysts recently issued reports on GEO shares. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Friday, March 27th. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Saturday, February 28th. JonesTrading dropped their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Friday, March 20th. Finally, Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $34.50.

Insider Transactions at Geo Group

In other Geo Group news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, March 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total value of $101,086.92. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 27,062 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $412,424.88. This trade represents a 19.69% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Insiders own 4.98% of the company’s stock.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 earnings beat and raised FY guidance — GEO posted adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.29 vs. consensus $0.19 and raised FY 2026 EPS guidance to $1.15–$1.25, which drove strong investor enthusiasm. Business Wire
• Positive Sentiment: Revenue and margins showing meaningful growth — Q1 revenue of ~$705M topped estimates and was up ~16.6% year‑over‑year, supporting the EPS beat and improving cash‑flow visibility. MarketBeat Earnings Summary
• Neutral Sentiment: Company projects 2026 revenue of $2.95B–$3.1B and says it is discussing potential ICE facility sales — this could be portfolio optimization but also signals possible asset disposals that may change future revenue composition. Seeking Alpha
• Negative Sentiment: Q2 revenue and EPS guidance slightly mixed vs. consensus — Q2 EPS guided to $0.25–$0.29 and revenue to $715M–$725M, which sits marginally below some street estimates and may temper near‑term expectations. Guidance Details
• Negative Sentiment: Negative operational and reputational headlines — a local report flagged abuses at a Washington ICE facility, adding public‑relations and regulatory risk that can pressure valuation for companies tied to immigration detention. Yakima Herald
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and public backlash mentioned on the call — management publicly complained about lawsuits over detention conditions, which highlights litigation risk and can weigh on investor sentiment. AOL
• Negative Sentiment: Industry reputational spillovers affecting counterparties — reports of bank customers pulling money from lenders tied to ICE work underscore broader political and consumer risks to firms in this sector. Banking Dive

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% during the second quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 1.2% during the third quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co now owns 125,217 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,627,000 after purchasing an additional 1,444 shares in the last quarter. Tidal Investments LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 6.6% during the second quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 23,595 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $565,000 after purchasing an additional 1,467 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 19.3% during the fourth quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $188,000 after purchasing an additional 1,882 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.