Rio Tinto Stock Earnings Estimates Cut by Erste Group Bank

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO) – Equities research analysts at Erste Group Bank lowered their FY2026 EPS estimates for Rio Tinto in a report released on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now expects that the mining company will post earnings of $8.03 per share for the year, down from their prior forecast of $8.48. Erste Group Bank has a “Hold” rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Rio Tinto’s current full-year earnings is $8.18 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Rio Tinto’s FY2027 earnings at $8.16 EPS.

A number of other analysts have also weighed in on the stock. Morningstar raised shares of Rio Tinto to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 14th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. restated a “neutral” rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research report on Thursday, July 30th. Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a “neutral” rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research note on Thursday, August 20th. DZ Bank reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a report on Tuesday, September 15th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reissued a “neutral” rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research note on Wednesday, July 15th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating, thirteen have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $101.62.

Rio Tinto Stock Up 2.4%

RIO stock opened at $85.76 on Wednesday. Rio Tinto has a 12 month low of $67.74 and a 12 month high of $112.58. The company has a 50-day moving average price of $96.35 and a 200 day moving average price of $96.23.

Institutional Trading of Rio Tinto

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of RIO. Altshuler Shaham Ltd purchased a new stake in shares of Rio Tinto in the first quarter valued at approximately $106,724,000. Renaissance Technologies LLC increased its holdings in Rio Tinto by 417.6% during the 1st quarter. Renaissance Technologies LLC now owns 965,800 shares of the mining company’s stock worth $90,099,000 after purchasing an additional 779,200 shares during the period. Bank of America Corp DE increased its holdings in Rio Tinto by 6.6% during the 1st quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 3,623,294 shares of the mining company’s stock worth $338,017,000 after purchasing an additional 225,016 shares during the period. Cidel Asset Management Inc. increased its holdings in Rio Tinto by 101.1% during the 2nd quarter. Cidel Asset Management Inc. now owns 241,718 shares of the mining company’s stock worth $22,946,000 after purchasing an additional 121,537 shares during the period. Finally, SummitTX Capital L.P. raised its position in Rio Tinto by 207.9% during the 1st quarter. SummitTX Capital L.P. now owns 113,025 shares of the mining company’s stock valued at $10,544,000 after purchasing an additional 76,322 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 19.33% of the company’s stock.

More Rio Tinto News

Here are the key news stories impacting Rio Tinto this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Rio Tinto agreed to farm into the Liamu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea, which includes the Dada porphyry discovery and Ubei prospect. The deal provides potential long-term copper and gold growth, although the project remains at an early exploration stage. Rio Tinto, LCL agree farm-in on PNG’s Liamu copper-gold project
• Neutral Sentiment: A former Rio Tinto executive was appointed to lead Australia’s national defence procurement or armaments agency. The appointment highlights the company’s management talent and government connections, but has no direct near-term impact on Rio Tinto’s earnings. Former Rio Tinto Australia CEO appointed as national armaments director
• Negative Sentiment: Erste Group Bank lowered its Rio Tinto EPS forecasts to $8.03 for fiscal 2026 from $8.48 and to $8.16 for fiscal 2027 from $8.59. Its “Hold” rating remains unchanged, but the reductions reinforce concerns about weaker future earnings growth and leave the estimates around or below the broader $8.18 consensus. Rio Tinto analyst estimate update
• Negative Sentiment: Rio Tinto and BHP reportedly lost an initial procedural battle in a sexual-harassment class action. Continued litigation could create legal costs, reputational damage and governance concerns. BHP and Rio Tinto lose first battle in sexual harassment class action
• Negative Sentiment: Rio Tinto proposed a 56% pay increase for CEO Simon Trott. The proposal may face shareholder scrutiny because of its size, potentially intensifying concerns about executive compensation and corporate governance. Rio Tinto proposes 56% pay bump for CEO
• Negative Sentiment: Unusually heavy put-option activity—6,606 contracts, 48% above typical volume—signals increased hedging or bearish speculation around RIO, though options activity alone does not confirm a change in fundamentals.

About Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto plc is a diversified mining and metals company with operations and projects spanning multiple continents. Its principal products include iron ore, aluminum, copper, lithium, borates and titanium dioxide, which are supplied to customers in the steel, construction, automotive, technology and manufacturing industries.

The company explores for, mines, processes and transports mineral resources, while also operating related infrastructure such as railways, ports, smelters and processing facilities.