Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08, FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $732.07 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $0.22 earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group’s conference call:

• Strong second-quarter performance: Revenue rose 15% year over year to $732.1 million, net income increased 63% to $47.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 20% to approximately $142 million. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $2.95-$3.05 billion in revenue, $168-$175 million in net income, and $550-$560 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• ICE expansion is accelerating: GEO expects its Big Horn and Rivers facilities to be activated by year-end 2026, adding approximately 2,508 beds and $165 million in annual revenue once normalized in early 2027. The company also has roughly 4,500 additional idle high-security beds that could generate more than $250 million in annual revenue if reactivated.
• The ISAP electronic-monitoring program is seeing a favorable mix shift toward higher-priced GPS ankle monitors and case management, helping offset lower contract pricing. GPS-monitored participants increased to approximately 54,000 from 17,000 in early 2025, while management said future policy changes could drive additional enrollment.
• GEO is exploring the potential sale of several turnkey facilities to ICE while retaining long-term support-services contracts. Management believes transactions could be valued similarly to recent industry deals and plans to use any proceeds for debt reduction, share repurchases, and other shareholder-focused uses.
• The Graceville and Bay managed-only Florida contracts, worth approximately $100 million in combined annual revenue, were delayed to July 1, 2027 because of unresolved budgetary issues. GEO also received no second-quarter revenue from its skip-tracing contract, although it expects the program to begin ramping in the second half of 2026.

Geo Group Stock Down 3.5%

GEO traded down $1.09 during trading on Thursday, reaching $30.33. The stock had a trading volume of 2,901,801 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,407,432. The company has a current ratio of 1.75, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. The company has a market capitalization of $4.05 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.40, a P/E/G ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79. The stock’s 50 day moving average is $29.11 and its two-hundred day moving average is $21.65. Geo Group has a one year low of $12.51 and a one year high of $32.25.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

GEO has been the subject of a number of recent analyst reports. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Monday, July 20th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. Northland Securities boosted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Finally, JonesTrading lifted their price objective on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Geo Group presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of GEO. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. boosted its stake in Geo Group by 4.6% during the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,213,000 after acquiring an additional 3,309 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group during the first quarter valued at approximately $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC lifted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% during the first quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $8,324,000 after purchasing an additional 178,622 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Invesco Ltd. boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,308,817 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $31,346,000 after purchasing an additional 52,623 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share versus the $0.29 consensus estimate, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, ahead of expectations for $721.4 million. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above analyst expectations: GEO forecast 2026 earnings of $1.27–$1.32 per share, compared with the $1.22 consensus estimate. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 also exceeds the $0.30 consensus, and the company expects $755 million–$805 million in third-quarter revenue. Geo Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved: JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and assigned a “buy” rating, implying substantial upside from the recent trading level. Benzinga Analyst Update
• Positive Sentiment: GEO is hiring for a new Colorado facility that ICE is preparing to open, signaling potential additional demand and revenue capacity for the company’s secure-facility services. GEO Group Posts Jobs for Colorado Facility
• Neutral Sentiment: The earnings call and recent performance coverage highlight GEO’s strong results and significant year-to-date stock gains, but also leave investors focused on execution, government contracts and the sustainability of elevated growth. GEO Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance disappointed: GEO projected fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31, below the $0.33 analyst consensus. This softer near-term outlook may be outweighing the second-quarter beat and stronger full-year forecast.
• Negative Sentiment: Lawmakers requested answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, creating regulatory, reputational and contract-related risks. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.