Northland Power (TSE:NPI) executives used the company’s fourth-quarter and year-end 2025 earnings call to emphasize execution on two major offshore wind builds, a growing battery storage platform, and a strategy aimed at doubling gross operating capacity to 7 gigawatts by 2030. Management also reported fourth-quarter financial improvement driven by strong offshore wind conditions and provided 2026 guidance that calls for higher Adjusted EBITDA but lower free cash flow per share compared with 2025.
Strategic priorities: “deliver, strengthen, grow”
President and CEO Christine Healy said 2025 included progress across operational, financial, and organizational priorities, including strengthening the leadership team and introducing a new global strategy with growth priorities, a five-year funding plan, and a focus on long-term value creation. She framed the strategy around three pillars—deliver, strengthen, and grow—against a backdrop of rising electricity demand driven by electrification, industrial and population growth, urbanization, and AI-related load.
Under the “strengthen” pillar, Healy highlighted a target of CAD 50 million in annual cost savings by 2028. She said the company has shifted to a regionally focused operating model—Americas and International business units—while centralizing development activities into a single global organization so projects compete for capital on a consistent basis.
Construction update: Hai Long and Baltic Power milestones
Healy said the company’s primary focus through 2026 is executing projects under construction, which together are expected to add 2.2 gigawatts of capacity by 2027. She provided updates on Hai Long in Taiwan and Baltic Power in Poland.
- Hai Long (Taiwan): Healy said all 73 foundations, all four export cables, and both offshore substations have been installed. She said 37 turbines have been installed and 20 are actively generating power. With winter conditions limiting offshore work, the team has kept crews on standby to continue commissioning when weather permits, with full in-water activity expected to resume later in April when the weather window reopens. Management said the project remains on track for commercial operation in 2027.
- Baltic Power (Poland): Healy said the quarter included completion of all monopile foundations and grid interconnection works by the local utility. She said both offshore substations were installed, two of four export cables were installed, and 30 of 76 turbines were installed. The project is on track for commercial operation in the second half of 2026.
In the Q&A, CFO Jeff Hart said Northland’s wind resource assumptions remain consistent with long-term averages and a P50 production forecast. Hart and Healy also described challenging weather conditions at Hai Long and noted the company’s conservative approach to assumptions given the closed weather window until April. On planning and execution, Healy said she is in regular contact with Siemens and that both organizations are focused on ensuring the right resources, vessels, and expertise are in place when offshore work resumes.
Battery storage and other portfolio developments
Healy said Northland is advancing its second battery storage project in Alberta, Jurassic BESS, following completion of the Oneida project last year. She said foundations have been installed at Jurassic BESS, battery packs have arrived in Canada, and the project is on track for commercial operation in 2026.
Healy also highlighted the recent acquisition of two late-stage battery storage projects in Poland, noting the company has signed battery supply agreements and is finalizing procurement activities ahead of financing and construction expected later in the year. In response to analyst questions, management said work is focused on permits, regulatory processes, and project financing, with an internal final investment decision targeted for mid-year.
On cost differences between battery projects, Healy attributed a significant portion of the difference to declining battery prices over time and also pointed to permitting speed as a factor, saying Poland’s process is quicker than what Northland typically sees in Canada.
Healy also noted that in November the company completed a required performance test for a 23 MW capacity upgrade at its Thorold natural gas-fired facility in Ontario and “officially secured” a five-year contract extension through 2035.
Financial performance: Q4 improvement, 2025 net loss tied to impairment
Hart said the fourth quarter benefited from strong winds at offshore assets and lower curtailment from grid outages, resulting in higher-than-budgeted production and a 21% increase versus the same quarter last year. He also cited 96% operating availability, contributions from Oneida (which commenced operations in May 2025), and increased demand for dispatchable power at natural gas facilities due to cold weather and third-party outages in Ontario.
Key figures discussed on the call included:
- Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: CAD 390 million, up 25% from Q4 2024.
- Q4 net income: CAD 290 million versus CAD 150 million in Q4 2024.
- Q4 free cash flow per share: CAD 0.46 versus CAD 0.31 in Q4 2024.
- Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: CAD 1.25 billion, in line with 2024. Hart said lower offshore wind resource in the first half offset contributions from Oneida and strong performance at the company’s Americas onshore wind assets.
- Full-year 2025 free cash flow per share: CAD 1.46 versus CAD 1.53 in 2024, reflecting higher scheduled debt repayments, lower offshore wind resource, and the non-recurrence of one-time items, partially offset by contributions from new assets and lower current taxes.
- Full-year 2025 net loss: CAD 108 million versus net income of CAD 371 million in 2024. Hart attributed the change primarily to a non-cash impairment for Nordsee One recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
Hart said Hai Long and Baltic Power had less than CAD 4 billion of capital expenditures remaining as of Dec. 31, and he said overall costs remain aligned with original expectations. He added that Hai Long turbine commissioning has been slower than expected and could impact pre-completion revenues and equity injections of CAD 150 million to CAD 200 million (Northland’s share). Hart said the company is evaluating project-level optimizations and funding avenues and expects to provide an update by midyear.
2026 guidance: higher EBITDA, lower free cash flow per share
For 2026, Hart guided to Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.45 billion to CAD 1.65 billion, which he said would represent an increase of about 25% versus 2025. Drivers cited included contributions from Hai Long and Baltic Power, full-year contributions from Oneida, and the start of operations at Jurassic BESS, partially offset by lower contributions from Nordsee One due to a scheduled step-down in the feed-in tariff mechanism.
Northland’s 2026 free cash flow guidance is CAD 1.05 to CAD 1.25 per share, down from CAD 1.46 in 2025. Hart attributed the decline to one-time items that benefited 2025 (totaling CAD 0.22 per share), ongoing foreign exchange hedging costs, higher debt service for natural gas assets, and the cessation of capitalized interest on hybrid debt as Baltic Power enters operations. He said Baltic Power’s incremental benefit is expected to be about $0.20 per share. Management also assumed approximately $50 million of development expenditures in 2026 focused on selective opportunities in Europe and Canada.
Hart said the company ended the year with more than $900 million of available liquidity and an investment-grade credit rating. In the Q&A, management said it is evaluating opportunities to optimize financing as projects approach commercial operations, with timing depending on market conditions.
About Northland Power (TSE:NPI)
Northland Power develops, constructs, and operates maintainable infrastructure assets across a range of clean and green technologies, such as wind (offshore and onshore), solar, and supplying energy through a regulated utility. Offshore wind is expected to remain the company’s largest segment over the long term. Northland’s growth opportunities are global and span North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia.
